We see two dominant themes running through the crypto markets. The first is the 4% swings in Bitcoin ( BTC ) feels like it is frustrating both bulls and bears Bulls who chased Bitcoin ( BTC ) above 9k, we stopped out overnight. This move was a payback of sorts for what happened to bears. Bears pressed shorts below 8700 only to see Bitcoin ( BTC ) rip up and stop them out.
The second major theme is that high-quality altcoins are doing quite. Cosmos (ATOM) and ZRX are two that have exceeded our expectations. Both of these themes were in line with the idea that Bitcoin ( BTC ) was going to have a hard time getting through significant resistance at 9500.
Now we believe there will be a new stage for Bitcoin ( BTC ). BTC has gone through what we call a "coiling phase." The recent whipsaw price action is like winding up a spring in physics. The tighter you wind the spring, the more force that is let loose when the spring is released. Said plainly, the recent exuberant range trade is likely a set up for a much bigger move.
Bottom Line: Bitcoin ( BTC ) has to stay above 8500. That is the location of the 50-day moving average. If that level holds, chances increase that Bitcoin ( BTC ) follows alts and goes up to 10k. If Bitcoin ( BTC ) continues to fall, the fall could be dramatic. The target could be 6k. Reason: We remember the severity of the 2018 drop . In the end, we believe the move could be up, but we are keeping an open mind to all scenarios.
DISCLOSURE: Token Metrics is a regular publication of information, analysis and commentary and does not provide individually tailored investment advice. The Token Metrics team has invested and advised in many blockchain companies. A complete list of the team disclosures, advisory roles and current holdings can be viewed here: https://blog.tokenmetrics.com/disclosures/.