As you may have heard in the news, people are starting to discuss downside targets in Bitcoin well below current prices. To help our readers, we decided to draw a map highlighting the big navigation points for BTCUSD .

Bitcoin is currently sitting on the 200-day moving average (black line). Right now, that level is 8372. This level is important. If the drop in the Bitcoin hash rate was just a blip from a miner hardware upgrade and there is not a scary problem that we don't fully understand, then the 200-day moving average should hold. If the 200-day moving average in BTCUSD does hold, a rally right back to 10k is possible.

If the 200-day moving average does not hold, then we can make you aware of downside targets seen in other commentaries. The first talked-about target is 7455. That level is the 62% retracement of the big leg of the last rally. Also, 7400 has been a significant inflection point going back to two years. Support there should be reliable.

Below that level, we can draw 6400. That level is an unfilled gap on the CMEbitcoin futures chart (BTC1, not shown). Below that is a diagonal Fib line at 5000.

Bottom Line: We are comfortable being on the sidelines and watching what happens at the 200-day moving average. For the sake of the crypto space, we are praying it holds. If Bitcoin Cash (BCH) continues to fall, we consider that a sign that there is distress with miners.

DISCLOSURE: Token Metrics is a regular publication of information, analysis and commentary and does not provide individually tailored investment advice.  The Token Metrics team has invested and advised in many blockchain companies. A complete list of the team disclosures, advisory roles and current holdings can be viewed here: https://blog.tokenmetrics.com/disclosures/.