On Tuesday, the cryptocurrency market soared to an all-time high, reaching a market cap of $3 trillion. The cryptocurrency market has been in a steep bullish trend since its May crash, having increased by about 175% since then. As the total crypto market peaked, Bitcoin reached $68,521 while Ethereum hit $4,811.
The current bullish market has left many analysts speculating whether a ‘cycle top’ may occur. During Bitcoin’s previous market cycle, the asset reached its blow-off top at $19,834 set on Dec 18, 2017. This then led to a multi-year downtrend and consolidation movement. Currently, many crypto analysts are using the data from Bitcoin’s last cycle to project potential blow-off tops for the end of this year.
Among the most famous of these crypto analysts is ‘Plan B’, the anonymous creator of the Stock-to-flow model. In accordance with his model, Plan B projects Bitcoin to hit $98k in November and $135k in December.
Plan B made this bold and scarily accurate Bitcoin end-of-year price prediction in Q2 2021. So far, his analysis has been correct for the months of August ($47k), September ($43k), and October ($63k). For Plan B’s prediction to remain correct through November, Bitcoin’s market cap needs to increase by approximately $800 billion.
However, these models have not gone without criticism, as many other crypto analysts believe the idea of ‘market cycles’ is over. These other analysts believe Bitcoin is not due to mirror its 2017 movement. Rather, they believe Bitcoin is currently advancing in uncharted waters. A tweet by Crypto Zombie described the ‘anti-cycles’ view perfectly, in which he described the difference in market sentiment between 2017 and today.
At the moment, there are many eyes on Bitcoin. End of 2021 price predictions have been shouted by analysts and influencers since the bull market really took off last December. Whether a blow-off top will occur is yet to be seen. If Plan B’s prediction turns correct, then that would mean a 2x increase from Bitcoin’s current prices. However, if the ‘anti-cycles’ view is correct, then this would likely be better for Bitcoin’s long-term health. As always, the rollercoaster continues, and the market will inevitably decide which view turns correct.